CNI News
3 January 2025
Even if talks between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Tatmadaw took place, it was unlikely to succeed, said military and political analysts.
The AA announced that it would discuss and solve the domestic problem through the political means on 29th December 2024.
Political talks were held at China's request and as they were practically related to the interests of war, the talks could not succeed, U Than Soe Naing, a political commentator, told CNI News.
" EAOs are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw mainly because they want their region to free from the military council. When they succeed to a large extent, they have to hold peace talks that China has put pressure on them to do so. But because political talks are practically related to the interests of war, any political talk was not successful. But when China that wants to make room for the military council told EAOs to hold peace talks, they discussed. In practice, any result did not come. The MNDAA discussed with the military council. But the discussion was broken. The discussion between the AA and the military council that will be held will be broken as well." he said.
While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing
Political dialogues were invited and welcome; attitudes and comments gained from discussions with EAOs and political parties would be recorded in order to be able to approve in the Hluttaw that would be formed in future, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC in his message speech to the Karen National New Year's Day that fell on 30th December 2024.
Because the AA's demands might be high in the discussion, military tensions could resume, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, told CNI News.
" Both sides no longer have the desire to take up arms. When they are at the roundtable, they will reduce the armed conflict step by step. And then, if it's convenient, they will be on the peace path. Otherwise, if they chose the armed means, when either side was totally defeated, it could be peaceful. In the current situation, the AA that has deemed that it has won the war will demand things higher. If they didn't gain what they want, military activities might emerge. During a long discussion, it will take a rest, re-gather sources and re-group. And then, military tensions will resume." he said.
While seeing a comrade of the AA
Although the AA had no desire to secede from the Union, it wanted the level that was not lower than the confederation, said U Khine Thukha, spokesperson of the AA at the press conference held on 4th March 2024.
Although some EAO leaders were saying that they wanted federalism and ethnic rights, in practice they were trying to disintegrate the Union, said chairman of the SAC in his New Year Speech on 1st January 2025.
Among 11 Chinese Projects in Rakhine State, the AA has controlled 11 projects, reported the ISP-Myanmar on 28th December 2024.
