CNI News

15 November 2024

Although most people have accepted that armed and political conflicts can be solved by using federalism in Myanmar, if some of stakeholders thought beyond federalism, the country could be disintegrated and new countries could be built, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies, U Thein Tun Oo told CNI News. 

The EAOs, the government and the Tatmadaw have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) agreed to build a union based on federal and democracy, which has been accepted by political parties.

However, because of political conditions that changed after February 2021, some EAOs expressed their intensions that they could build confederations or separate independent countries.

While seeing the leader of the AA

Neighboring countries didn't want Myanmar to be disintegrated; federalism only would be convenient for Myanmar, said U Thein Tun Oo.

" As the federalism has been designated, a way to federalism is being found. But if there are intensions to go beyond the federalism, Myanmar will be disintegrated and new countries will be built. But its consequences impact on not only Myanmar but also the entire Southeast Asia. On top of that, powerful countries related to them will face problems. Not long ago, regional countries make room for the SAC politically because they know how the consequences can be bad." he said.

If a new country was established within Myanmar, as a government, it would be difficult to carry out administrative mechanism, trade and main tasks of a government, pointed out political analysts. 

While seeing the UWSA

Only if confederation was demanded, could the federalism be typically agreed, chairman of the PNLO-NCA/S, an NCA signatory, Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.

" Federal countries are different from their histories and background subjects. Our country must use a kind of federalism. This may be to develop states or rather want to make the central government stronger, like India for example. But confederations and separate countries are just prices that are proposed so that in accordance with a typical federalism, it could be agreed to make states enjoy self-determination that they should get, I think." he said.

The Arakan Army (AA) has said that they will try to get the status that is not less than the United Wa State Army (UWSA) or the confederation.

While seeing EAOs, diplomats and political parties

 At present in Myanmar, the EAOs that have got the confederation status more than federalism are the UWSA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA). 

Now the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has started implementing the confederation.

In the same way, EAOs would have ways of thinking beyond the federalism in 2025, said vice chairman of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Lt-Gen Gun Maw. 

Moreover, Palaung people must have made preparations to establish a new country if there were situations to do so, said Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw, general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on 18th August 2022.