CNI News

28 September 2024

There are comments and discussions among military and political analysts regarding whether the China's pressure on the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA,TNLA,AA) has impacted on opposition elements. 

Although China put pressure on the Three Brotherhood Alliance, it didn't impact on the Spring Revolution, Dr.Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" It doesn't impact on the Spring Revolution because the military council won't be able to regain the control of Lashio and Laukkai. If the Tatmadaw attacked to regain them, the MNDAA and the TNLA would attack back." she said.

While seeing leaders of the MNDAA, the AA and the TNLA

Ruili State Security Committee sent the TNLA a letter in which the committee warned the TNLA to stop battles immediately and to keep the stability and peace of northern Myanmar and the China-Myanmar border areas on 29th August 2024. 

The MNDAA stated on 4th September that it would not cooperate with the NUG in the military and politics as well as it would not expand the military. Moreover, it would not launch offensives to Mandalay and Taunggyi, but it would maintain self-defense right.

The MNDAA and the TNLA have allied with the NUG and are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw and they are EAOs attempting to overthrew the Myanmar Tatmadaw. Because they didn't like the SAC that has taken power, the NUG/PDF has chosen the armed way. 

But they were likely to succeed, U Thein Tun Oo, director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNI News.

While seeing the TNLA

" Since the armed way was chosen without going from the election path, the NUG/PDFs have been in the wrong way. According to the history, armed ways in Myanmar were unlikely to succeed in the end. They will usually die out some time in the future." he said.
China was strategically carrying out its work and it has influenced on some EAOs, U Kyi Myint, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.

" The TNLA hasn't released a statement and the AA and the KIA haven't released statements up to now. So, China strategically carries out the work it has to. It has adopted these organizations. It won't damage these organizations. It practices like a provocateur in the guise of a peacemaker. So, it might give in a bit or it might practice more severely. If our spring revolution doesn't have anything to do with these things, our spring revolution will succeed. Otherwise, our revolution will lose." he said.

Due to the political changes on 1st February 2021, democratic elements wage the Spring Revolution. And then, they collaborated with some EAOs including the TNLA and the MNDAA and are fighting against the Myanmar Tatmadaw.