CNI Article
31 August 2024
The Tatmadaw staged a coup d'etat in 1962, saying federalism led to secession.
At that time, the people were enjoying full democracy under the government led by Prime Minister U Nu.
However, because of inequalities in the distribution of administrative power and natural resources, non-Bamar ethnic groups demanded federalism and the distribution of natural resource ownership.
Having said that federalism that was demanded was to call for secession and led to the disintegration of the country, the Tatmadaw led by U Ne Win staged a coup d'etat and silenced the federalism.
While seeing Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing
When the government led by U Thein Sein came to power, the Tatmadaw expressed that it accepted federalism.
However, peace building and implementation of federalism have not been successful until today (2024).
Myanmar's rule of law has been destroyed throughout the country and the armed conflict has escalated.
Similarly, the military strength of the Tatmadaw has become weak and the administration has also become weak.
Therefore, armed groups have been implemented using words 'right to self-determination and self-governance' from the idea of building a federal union.
There are two kinds of self-determinations and one has the right to secession and the other, no right. In the past, some EAOs talked about self-determination with no right to secession and others, one with the right to secession. However, both groups are talking about self-governing.
The Arakan Army (AA) has said that it would get the self-governing status not lower than the United Wa State Army or confederation (confederate) status.
The EAOs that have received confederation status beyond federalism are the UWSA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA)-Myla.
Now the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has started implementing self-governance.
While seeing General Yawd Serk
" We'll have to start governing in the territories that we, seven NCA signatories, have controlled with our self-governing system. We'll have to carry out administration, security, economy, education, healthcare and livelihood as well as other services. We'll have to build the federal union step by step. We need to carry out in accordance with the principle - working together for the same purpose and working separately for different purposes." said General Yawd Serk, chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State at the meeting of the seven NCA signatories held from 17th to 19th March 2024.
In the same way, because there would be considerations beyond federalism in 2025, a federal union should be built as soon as possible, said Vice Chairman of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Lt-Gen Gun Maw while he was meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing in 2018.
Moreover, if the situation arises to establish a country, Palaung people must make preparations to get ready, said Maj-Gen Tar Bone Kyaw, general secretary of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on 18th August 2022.
" Depending on geopolitics and the current world political situations, if this country cannot be established as a federal union, small countries can arise after this country is divided into pieces, so our Ta'ang (Palaung) people need to think about it thoroughly. We need to make thorough preparations. If the country can be established as a federal union, we need to make attempts to protect our nationality as a state. Otherwise, the country cannot be established as a federal union; because of geopolitics or world politics or revolutions are so strong, if small countries arise, we need to make preparations to build a country of our own." said Maj-General Tar Bone Kyaw.
While seeing leaders of the MNDAA and the UWSA
If you look at the above-mentioned situations in general, EAOs are found that they are making preparations to build confederates rather than federalism, considering the current situation of Myanmar politics, weakness of the Tatmadaw, public opposition to the Tatmadaw and international situation. Otherwise, they seem to have the ideas of building the status higher than confederation.
The Tatmadaw responded demanding federalism by staging a coup d'état, saying federalism was equal to disintegration of the country - how it will tackle the situation in which EAOs could demand confederation status beyond federalism is interesting.
The international community will not tolerate the disintegration of Myanmar or the collapse of central authority because they are worried if the collapse of central authority, small countries could arise and territorial wars would take place among ethnic groups.
At present, territorial wars are breaking out among the TNLA, the MNDAA, the KIA, the PDF, the UWSA and the SSPP in northern Shan State as well as among the KIA, the AA, the PDF, the SNA, the KNO (Kuki) and the NSCN in Sagaing Region as well as among the AA, the CNF, and the CND in Chin State as well as among the AA, the ALP, the ARSA and the RSO in Rakhine State as well as among the PDF, the TNLA and the KIA in Mandalay Region.
Because of the above-mentioned situations, efforts to build confederation from a federal union previously intended, what will happen to the future of Myanmar will have to be watched.
