CNI News

2 August 2024

Military analysts are reviewing and discussing in relation to whether a ceasefire could emerge in northern Shan State after the end of July under the China's pressure.

Battles were severely breaking out between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the TNLA, the MNDAA, the MDY-PDF, the DPLA joint forces in Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, Lashio, northern Shan State as well as in Momeik, Mogok, Madaya and Sintku, Mandalay Region since 25th June, 2024.

The Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF/TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) announced ceasefire for four days. 

The MNDAA announced that it would cease fire unilaterally until the end of July. The six month validity of the SAC expired on 31st July and because the meeting of the National Defense and Security would be held on that day, the situation would be watched, Col-Khun Okkar, patron of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) told CNI News.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing

" The MNDAA announced that it would cease fire on 31st July. But the battles was breaking out during the past days. And at the same time, that day is the day when the SAC's six month tenure will expire. So, what will the SAC do? And will the MNDAA really cease fire? So, 31st July is an important day. So, everyone will have to watch that day." he said.

Although the MNDAA announced that it had ceased fire, it was attacking the military camps and the Northeastern Command in Lashio of the Myanmar Tatmadaw.

Negotiations and compromises should be made to end the conflict, Naing Than Shwe, spokesperson of the Mon Unity Party (MUP) told CNI News.

" It's necessary to negotiate and discuss to end the conflicts. The problem is that the situation has not emerged yet. But we haven't know the government's policy and EAOs and other organizations haven't released any policy statements. So, it's hard to say." he said.

While seeing the MNDAA

There are heavy weapon fires and air strikes during battles between the two sides at present, and civilian casualties, house damages as well as locals are fleeing to safety.

The Chinese government had told the TNLA and the MNDAA three points, they are (1) to cease fire at once, (2) If the two EAOs didn't cease fire, leaders of the two EAOs would be taken action against and (3) if they didn't cease fire, China would sell effective weapons to the Myanmar Tatmadaw, said those close to the SAC and the northern allies.

If the above-mentioned situations were studied, Operation-Shan-Man also might suspend in the end of July. 

However, because not every organization accepts what China said, it was necessary to watch what would happen next, said those close to the organizations.