CNI Article
17 March 2024
At present armed forces across the country are carrying out to overthrow the Myanmar Tatmadaw that everybody knows.
Of the armed organizations which are carrying out to topple the Tatmadaw, Let's study how the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is implementing its aim.
The KIA started providing military training and supporting arms to those who had mind to fight against the Tatmadaw in Sagaing Region bordering Kachin State. And then, the KIA led military operations, developed support channels and connected with other armed forces.
After the KIA had been able to manage these situations surely, it laid down three military strategies and implemented them to control Sagaing Region. These military strategies are (1) to conduct a military operation centered on Banmauk Township, (2) to carry out a Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kantblu) military operation, and (3) to conduct a military operation centered on Tigyaing Township.
As No.1 military operation, if the KIA is able to control Banmauk Township, it can go on attacking Indaw and Katha. And then, it can attack Pinlebu. If the KIA has been able to control Pinlebu, it can easily attack Puaungpyin, Shwe Pyi Aye and Homalin.
Shanni People
In order to be able to attack these townships, according to the military strategy, Banmauk Township is important to the KIA. And then, it will be able to develop support channels easily. The channels that are able to support arms to Banmauk are the channels going from Mohnyin Township to Maw Han, Mawluu and Indaw.
Another channel is one going from Shwegu Township, Kachin State to Katha Township, Sagaing Region from which there are channels going to Indaw and Banmauk.
No.2 is the Ka Thone Lone (Katha, Kawlin and Kantblu) military operation which the KIA will continue to control Kawlin after it has been able to control Katha for the first time. And then the KIA comes down and could continue to control Kantblu.
Even though the KIA lost control of Kawlin after taking control of it, the KIA could make an attempt to control it again at any time. So, the KIA might occupy at Kyun Hla and protect from attacking Kawlin by the Tatmadaw and could put pressure on Kantblu.
KIA- PDF
To make this operation successful, arms and ammunitions can be supported by the channels from Shwegu, Mohnyin and Indaw in Kachin State.
Third operation is the one centered on Tigyang Township. As the implementation of this operation, the KIA, the AA, and the PDF joint forces are attacking Tigyaing Town and have seized control of rural area of the township. Arms and ammunition can be sent to Tigyaing mainly from Shwegu Township, Kachin State and also from Katha. In addition, arms and ammunition can be supported from Mabein region.
After the KIA, AA and PDF have been able to have controlled the entire Tigyaing Township, they will be able to control upper Ayeyarwady River and the route between Sagaing-Mandalay and Kachin State. And then the KIA will be able to put military pressure on Mandalay.
The Chin National Force (CNF), the Chin National Defense Force (CNDF), the People's Defense Force (PDF), the Kuki National Organization Burma (KNO-Burma) and the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) are collaboratively attacking Tamu, Khampat,Kalay Townships in Sagaing Region.
ABSDF
These forces are being provided with arms and ammunition by the KIA that is striving to control the entire Sagaing Region. In any case, because the KIA is implementing the three military strategies in cooperation with thses armed groups, if the KIA succeeded in its operations, it would be able to control the entire Sagaing Region.
If the KIA was able to control the entire Sagaing Region, arms and ammunition could be sent to Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States without any obstacles.
And then, the AA, the CNF, the CNDF and the PDF would be able to strive for the liberation of Mandalay, Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States.
So, the strategy for controlling the entire Sagaing Region will produce the battles for the liberation of Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandalay Regions. However, the KIA is facing some obstacles in implementing the strategy to control the entire Sagaing.
It is the Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) that is striving for the stability and peace of the middle part of Sagaing Region and upper parts where there are regions that Shanni nationalities live and owned.
The SNA is being active especially in Tigyaing, Kawlin, Wuntho, Pinlebu, Katha, Shwe Pyi Aye, Tamu, kalay, Banmauk, Indaw, Phaungpyin, Homalin, Mawlike and Thanan regions and it is making efforts for the reginal stability and peace and to get Shanni State.
Because Shanni region is located in the area where the KIA is implementing its three military strategies, battles are breaking out between the SNA and the KIA/PDF joint forces. So, if the KIA was able to organize the SNA, it can easily implement its strategies.
SNA
Otherwise, the KIA can find it difficult to do so. Therefore, whether the KIA will organize or annihilate the SNA is important to the KIA.
In the same way, the Tatmadaw would be able to have upper hand if it was able to organize the SNA.
The KIA was putting pressure on India since before with its supporting Naga and Meitei armed groups to please China. If the KIA was able to control Sagaing Region, it could put pressure on India more because the KIA is supporting arms and ammunition to the Naga armed groups that are waging armed resistance against India and has allowed the groups to set their military camps in Laiza, headquarters of the KIA.
So, if the KIA was able to contain the entire Sagaing Region, it would be able to threaten the national security and interests of India.
There is a question whether the KIA can afford the cost of arms and ammunition that it will support in order to control the entire Sagaing Region and to go on waging battles in Chin, Rakhine States, Magway and Mandalay Regions.
CNF
In fact, it cannot afford. If so, which force is there behind the KIA? According to some military analysts, China is behind the KIA's military operations. Others said that the operations might contain some of the US's strategies.
At any rate, the KIA won't dare to ignore China's attitude. So, the KIA will use a two-way diplomatic method so as not to lose relation with both US and China.
The above-mentioned situations are related to how important Sagaing Region it is to the armed forces trying to overthrow the Tatmadaw, to China and to the Tatmadaw.
But we'll have to keep a close watch with what will happen next.
