CNI News
20 January 2024
Battles might break out severely in Sagaing and Magway Regions after a ceasefire between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State, said military and political analysts.
When it was over two months since the Operation-1027 was launched on 27th October, discussions were held from 9th to 11th January after which the Tatmadaw and the Three brotherhood Alliance agreed to temporary ceasefire.
The People Defense Force (PDF) troops who went and joined in the Operation-1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance would come down to the mainland and there was also concern about the election, U Thet Zaw, a political commentator, told CNI News.
While seeing the BNRA force
" Because the ceasefire has been conducted in northern Shan State, PDFs who went and joined in the Operation-1027 will come back to the mainland. To tell you frankly, PDFs don't like that a civilian government will arise. The NUG/CRPH, behind them, will push the PDFs so as not to enable the State Administration Council (SAC) to hold the election for their existence. So, it will be worrisome for the election. When the PDFs went and joined in the operation, the fighting in Sagaing and Magway Regions was much less. But now they are about to come back. If battles broke out again like in the past, it wouldn't be good." he said.
The Operation-1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) contains the Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA), the Mandalay People's Defense Force (MDY-PDF), the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Most of the townships in northern Shan State have been captured by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and it could be generally said that their military objective has been achieved, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.
While seeing the Three Brotherhood Alliance
" Except for Lashio in northern Shan State, all the remaining regions have been controlled by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and their military objective is generally achieved. They might tackle Lashio like Laukkai. After the ceasefire, the city has been surrounded. Their military objective in northeastern part of the cuntry has ended. The operation has reached Naunghkio now. And then, it might reach Pyin Oo Lwin and Mandalay. The implemantation of that military objective was not included in the ceasefire agreement. At the same time, PDFs in Sagaing and Magway Regions might promote their military activities against the Tatmadaw and vice versa, I think." he said.
During the Operation-1027, the Three brotherhood Alliance has captured Laukkai, Kon Kyan,Kung Lon, Pangsai, Mong Ko, Phaung Sai, Theinni, Chin Shwe Haw, Namkham, Kutkai, Mang Ton, Nansang, Namtu, Mong Lon and Mong Ngor.
