CNI News

22 November 2023

There are reviews and discussions among the political circles about whether Myanmar could disintegrate if the armed conflicts taking place in the country could not be controlled. 

If the Tatmadaw was not able to successfully handle the armed conflicts breaking out in the border areas, the country could disintegrate.

So, the Tatmadaw needed to carefully handle it, said U Myint Swe, Acting President of the State Administration Council at the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council held on 8th November 2023.

although there was no such thing as a state of collapse of the country, the country could become like Syria, U Ba Shein, a Rakhine politician, told CNI News.

While seeing U Myint Swe

" There might not be a situation where the country can disintegrate. It might be the same problem as in Syria. But it's very important that how China, Myanmar's neighboring powerful country, could help to make Myanmar convenient. India's help is also considered important." said U Ba Shein.

Because there were also separatist movements in Myanmar's neighboring countries - China, India and Thailand, these countries would not want Myanmar to disintegrate, domestic politicians pointed out.

Myanmar gained her independence on 4th January 1948 and internal armed conflicts began to emerge in March that year. 

The armed conflicts have not been able to be solved up to now. In addition, due to political changes after 1st February 2021, armed conflicts have become more widespread across the country. 

The Three Brotherhood Alliance waged battles capturing towns and cities during its Operation-1027 that started on 27th October 2023. In the same way, revolutionary forces also waged battles capturing towns and cities.

While seeing Kawlin residents and a comrade from the PDF

Although the country might be disintegrate, revolutionary forces have not yet been oneness, Sao Khun Sai, a participant in the peace process, told CNI News.

" The country might disintegrate. It is also possible to reassemble without disintegrating. Because the PDF and most EAOs are fighting against the Tatmadaw for the time being, it is true that the influence of the Tatmadaw is declining. And its military strength also has been affected. But the Tatmadaw is still oneness. But revolutionary forces haven't been oneness. In order to win, it's necessary to be a unified leadership." he said.

The Battles are currently breaking out between the Tatmadaw and revolutionary forces including some EAOs in Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, Chin States, Sagaing and Magway Regions.

As a result of these battles, civilians were injured and killed. Moreover, houses were damaged or burnt down and many civilians fled to safety. The country's politics, peace, economy, health and education are deteriorating.