CNI Article
24 October 2023
Peace has been built since 1948 when Myanmar gained her independence until today.
When peace was being built, it was built in various forms - an exchange of arms and peace, an exchange of surrender and peace as well as peace building without surrender.
However, stakeholders were not able to reach an agreement that could lead to a cease of the armed conflict and solving political problems.
And then, when the government led by U Thein Sein came to power, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) came into being. The NCA has been the best agreement up to now among Myanmar peace-making attempts and it is also a prestigious contract.
The NCA contains seven chapters and thirty-three clauses. It is the only exit that is able to amend the 2008 constitution that is not easy to be amended. Moreover, it is an agreement from which stakeholders can discuss and find a solution for the establishment of a democratic federal union.
The NCA contains provisions such as how to protect civilians, how two organizations keep from fighting, how to meet and discuss in case of fighting, how to find a solution for political disagreements and how to protect from recruitment by armed organizations.
However, weak points that are not included in the NCA are whether a certain NCA signatory has the rights to temporarily suspend or to entirely resign from membership.
Moreover the NCA doesn't contain that under what circumstances the agreement is void. It is questionable whether resignation and temporary suspension from membership are appropriate or not.
Not very long ago, three NCA signatories . the Karen National Union (KNU), the Chin National Front (CNF) and the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) stated that the NCA has been void.
However, seven remaining NCA signatories said that the NCA still.has not been void. In the same way, the Tatmadaw also said that the NCA was not void because it was an agreement that was approved by the Hluttaw and it was signed by witnesses local and abroad. So, there are arguments with one another about whether the NCA is void or not, and there are also political exploitations.
Having carefully studied these circumstances, is the NCA really broken? Who are destroying the NCA, because a person or organization says that the NCA has been void, is it an agreement that can be broken? We should consider whether there are political exploitations using the NCA as a tool.
Firstly, KNU, CNF and ABSDF pointed out that the NCA has been void because there were (1) no Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (2) no government and Hluttaw and (3) the Tatmadaw conducted a coup d'etat without solving a political problem by political means.
To talk about the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, only if there was the result of the political talks or the agreement that came out after the union peace conference, would it be submitted to the Hluttaw.
So, if there is no Pyidaungsu Hluttaw now, when there will be Pyidaungsu Hluttaw in the future, after the agreement is submitted to the Hluttaw and the Hluttaw's approve can be taken. This should not be considered a problem. Moreover, soon after the agreement is submitted to the Hluttaw, it is not implemented at once. It can be implemented when necessary agreements are reached.
Although submitted to the Hluttaw, there were many agreements that could not be implemented under the governments led by U Thein Sein and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
In relation to the reason that there is no government and Hluttaw, it is controversial. The Tatmadaw toppled down the civilian government and formed the State Administration Council. And then SAC has carried out for administration, judiciary and legislation.
Moreover, because U T Khun Myat is still alive as the speaker of Pyithuhluttaw, some people have considered that there are the government and Hluttaw.
Moreover, Although the Tatmadaw has stated that the result of the 2020 general election was cancelled, because MPs who came out from the 2015 general election have not been declared illegal, we can generally consider that there are still MPs.
Thirdly, there is no clear and precise position in saying that political problems must be solved by political means. Is that an agreement between the Tatmadaw and EAOs or between the government and the Tatmadaw? it is not clear.
Next, If the Tatmadaw took the State power for some reason or a state of emergency was declared, because there was no provision saying that the NCA is void, the NCA has some weak points.
However, there were the Tatmadaw, the government and the Hluttaw under the NLD government. At that time when the political problem was being solved by political means, the KNU stated that it would suspend attending the official meetings relating to implementation of peace process on 10th November 2018.
After the KNU's statement was released, peace processes stopped and the KNU did not attend the meetings relating to implementation of peace processes anymore.
When something like that happened, in accordance with the NCA, agreements regarding at what time what things must be performed and what meetings should be held became stagnant and the process could not be implemented.
Such implementations could not be conducted from 18th November 2018 to 1st February 2021 when the Tatmadaw overthrew the NLD government.
However, the political landscape after 1st February 2021 is separate. So, it is something to think about who is destroying the NCA. Looking back, after the KNU stated that it had suspended attending the meetings on implementation of peace processes, the Union Peace Conference – 21st Century Panglong that was held every six months could not be held anymore.
Moreover,the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM) of the NCA that was held every three months was 8finally held on 28th February 2016 as the 7th meeting and it could not be held until 1st February 2021.
Although political disagreements could be solved at the JICM, doesn't that participation in peace processes that had been temporarily suspended violate the provisions in the NCA? And then, the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) that was held every two months could not be held until 1st February 2021.
Moreover, national level political discussions, political framework preparation and review meetings, the meetings of Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee - Union Level (JMC-U), JMC meetings and the meetings of the State Level Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC-S) also stopped.
Looking back after 1st February 2021, although you might say that the Tatmadaw caused the bloodshed of the civilians and did not solve the political problem through political means but relied on weapons instead.
In the same way, other armed organizations including KNU, CNF and ABSDF recruited, armed, neglected civilians being killed, created battles at Lay Kayt Kaw, a symbol of peace, bore armed people in Chin State and carried out battles against the provisions in the NCA, some people pointed out.
As a matter of fact, the NCA has not been working since November 2018. So, who is destroying the NCA? It is questionable. In fact, instead of blaming one another relating whether the NCA is void or not or who has destroyed the NCA, how to implement the provisions in the NCA should be thought of.
Through implementation of the NCA, how to overcome the current Myanmar crisis and how to build a peaceful democratic transition and how to build a federal union should be thought of and performed, I think.
" If the implementation of the peace process fails, the union will disintegrate as well." said Gen.Yawd Serk at a press conference held in Thailand on 27 October 2019.
In the same way," We all understand it is necessary to keep the promise. The current difficulties are not because of the NCA but because of weakness in implementation, necessity to follow the agreement and different understanding." said Daw Aung San Suu Kyi at the 4th anniversary celebration of the NCA.
If you wanted to build a federal union, you should beware that gentleness and magnanimity were needed, she added.
