CNI News
4 August 202
Although the chairman of the State Administration Council said that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would increase four percent in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, every time the country's GDP increases, the country might not necessarily progress, said U Thet Zaw, an economic analyst.
As the GDP increased 3.4 percent in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, the GDP would increase four percent in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, said Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the SAC at the meeting of the National Defense and Security Council held 31st July, 2023.
Because of the need to balance the wages and salaries of individuals with monetary inflation and high commodity prices, the country was not necessarily progressing, said U Thet Zaw to CNI News.
"There are many ways to calculate the GDP. Trade value might increase because trading gates at the Chinese border have re-opened and corns were exported to Thailand through Myawady. But there are monetary inflation and high commodity prices in local. We need to calculate how much GDP effect it is. We have to compare the income and expenditure of an individual consumer to commodity prices and monetary inflation. That's why every time the country's GDP increase, the country might not necessarily progress. We need to understand that thoroughly." he said.
Somewhere in the Bogyoke Market in Yangon
Myanna economy obviously decreased in previous years because of the Covid-19 pandemic, local instability and pressures from local and abroad and the country's GDP decreased until minus 5.9 percent in 2021, said in the ADB's report. Although the GDP of a country should be between 5 percent and 7 percent, that the GDP has increased without making the GDP decrease is a good situation because the country has not been stable, said U Aung Pyae Sone, a businessman to CNI News.
A garment industry
" Normally, if a country's GDP increases about 7 percent, it is very convenient. But whenever the GDP increases or decreases, there is a question whether the country becomes rich. Individual income must be taken into account. Although a country seems to be good when its GDP increases, if that GDP increases is coming from import for local construction industry, not from export and foreign reserves have to be used, the GDP tends to increase. But if the country doesn't have enough foreign reserve, the price of dollar will go up. So, whenever a country's GDP increases, the country might not necessarily progress. As long as the gap between import and export can be controlled and the GDP increases 5 to 7 percent, it will be convenient, I Think." he said.
When the GDP is calculated, apart from import and export, it is necessary to take into accounts of local productivity, individual income, basic food prices and monetary inflation, said economic analysts.
If the amount of import outnumbered that of export and local productivity decreased, foreign reserves could decrease. So, the government should help to promote the local productivity, said businessmen.
