CNI News
23 Feb 2023
After Acting President Duwa Lashi La of the National Unity Government said that the year 2023 was the decisive year, political observers have been wondering whether the year will be decisive or not.
Some observers are of the view that the armed struggle may prolong the crisis while others see the year as decisive and have stepped up momentum of the revolution.
He has not seen coordination among various People's Defence Forces militarily and politically, Political Observer U Ye Tun told the CNI.
He said, "The main problem for the NUG is the coordination among different local people's defence forces. When we look at the history of Myanmar, U Nu formed the Democracy Party and based in the area controlled by the KNU to form a patriotic army, which grew in strength and possessed arms and ammunition. However, unity was the main problem and factions of the army fought against each other and the KNU. Eventually, it collapsed. At present, local people's defence forces are formed on the self-help basis. They are not organized ideologically, politically and militarily like the Communist Party of Burma."
NUG Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Than and the PDF.
Although the year may be a turning point for military operations, it may not be decisive for the revolution, Political Observer U Than Soe Naing told the CNI.
He told the CNI, "I don't think it will be a decisive year for the revolution because among about 500 PDF battalions, about 200 battalions are not under the command of the NUG. And the process to transform the forces into a regular army has not been completed. They are just local defence forces. The NUG has yet to form them into brigades. Then, only about 60 percent of the PDFs have been properly armed. However, they have limited heavy weapons for counter offensives."
There are some EAOs that have cooperated with the Spring Revolution while others are holding peace talks with the junta or have reached ceasefire agreements with it.
The Myanmar military.
Without assistance from EAOs, this year cannot be a decisive year, Kachin Politician U Kwan Gaung Aung Kham told the CNI.
He said, "I don't think the NUG alone will be able to decide it because those who have weapons and control the areas are EAOs. Without their assistance, it would be difficult for the NUG to make such a decision. However, it would be difficult to predict if it gets assistance from the US, the EU, Japan and the ASEAN. Anyway, it is difficult for the NUG to decide this by itself. EAOs will decide the matter."
At present, fighting has erupted between the junta and the allied forces of some EAOs and the PDFs in Kayin State, Kayah (Karenni) State, Chin State, Sagaing Region and Magway Region.
