CNI News
29 Jan 2023
Armed clashes are likely to intensify in Myanmar, Rakhine Politician U Pe Than told the CNI.
If the Myanmar military quit politics and discharged its original duties of national defence and security, it would be a prestigious institution, he added.
U Pe Than told the CNI, "I think political changes will take place sooner or later. Political and military exits for the junta are getting narrower and narrower because they are closing their own way. If they quit politics and discharged their original duties of national defence and security, the junta would be a prestigious institution admired by the people. If it has continued to be involved in politics forcefully, it is closing its own way. It seems that the military is creating its own timetable to be involved in the vicious politics and military circle. Therefore, military conflicts will intensify and the junta will be clinging to politics and oppress the people more fiercely."
The National Unity Government announced that the year 2023 would be the decisive year for the Spring Revolution.
Troops from the Southern Command undergoing training.
Currently, fighting has intensified between the military and joint forces of the Karen National Union and the People Defence Force and political observers said armed conflicts could have an impact on the political changes.
The more intensified the armed conflicts, the fewer the chances for political dialogue, Director U Thein Tun Oo of the Strategic Studies told the CNI.
He said, "Generally, the more intensified the armed conflicts, the fewer the chances of political dialogue. It might be a little more difficult to hold talks. However, not all Karen factions have the same approach. So, some factions which want to take the correct path to peace will have chances to achieve peace. It is difficult for hardline factions which uphold armed struggle to engage in talks. Opportunities for peace will never disappear completely. The situation may be more lukewarm than before. As the KNU is divided into two factions, one is more enthusiastic about the armed struggle while the other supports the peace process. Therefore, there are opportunities for pacifists. Outcomes depend on the extent of cooperation and talks."
Gen Yawd Serk meets the leader of the SAC peace negotiation team.
Currently, armed clashes have erupted between the military and various armed groups including the Kachin Independence Army, the KNU, the Karenni National Progressive Party, the Chin National Front and the PDFs in Karen State, Kayah (Karenni) State, Chin State, Sagaing and Magway regions.
On the other hand, the State Administration Council is holding peace talks with the Shan State Restoration Council, the Arakan Liberation Party, the Palaung National Liberation Organization, the Lahu Democratic Union, the New Mon State Party, the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, the KNU/KNLA (PC), the United Wa State Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army and the Shan State Progressive Party.
