CNI News

16 Nov 2022

The Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) is unlikely to expel Myanmar from the regional block, Political Observer U Ye Tun told the CNI.

The ASEAN makes decisions based on consensus and it is very difficult for the block to make such a decision, he added.

U Ye Tun told the CNI, "Under the ASEAN Charter, resolutions are made on concensus. At present, there are wide differences over the Myanmar issue among the members. It is difficult to expel Myanmar from the block. Moreover, the charter prohibits interference of the internal affairs of member states and intimidation and coercion. It is impossible for the ASEAN to expel Myanmar from the block."

During the ASEAN summit on 10th November, some members proposed to expel Myanmar from the block and an intense debate broke out among leaders, according to Philippines President Marcos.

Lawyer U Kyee Myint echoed the similar view.

An empty chair for a Myanmar representative at an ASEAN meeting. (Reuters)

He told the CNI, "The ASEAN will never take such measures because it is nothing but a block that is always pretending  to do something or other whenever an issue arises. They will not take such measures. Moreover, there is no provision for expelling a country from the regional body in their charter. If they add a clause to expel a member in their charter, they will be able to do that.  There are other political reasons too. So, they won't expel Myanmar."

The ASEAN cannot be expected to resolve the Myanmar cirisis and the block had been divided into the Chinese camp and the US camp, he added.

The SAC foreign ministry announced that Myanmar would not respect the decisions made at the ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting in Jakarta in Indonesia on 27th October, 2022, as it was not invited.

U Ye Tun told the CNI, "Some advisors to the SAC are also suggesting that Myanmar should leave the regional body because it is insulting Myanmar by not inviting the SAC chairman and the foreign minister to their meetings. However, elected governments in the future will have to try to rejoin the body. So, I don't think they should leave the ASEAN because it will further isolate itself and there are some countries that support the junta. So, they won't leave the block if they are farsighted."

ASEAN members have agreed to invite non-political officials to their meeting as long as the SAC fails to make progress on the five-point consensus of the block.