CNI News
10 October 2025
Theinni, a town in northern Shan State currently under the control of the Kokang armed group (MNDAA), could reach a balanced settlement between the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw with China’s guarantee, said Colonel Khun Okkar, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), to CNI News.
Military and political analysts point out that since both the Myanmar military and China are prioritizing control over border trade routes, efforts are being made to reestablish control over Theinni, a town strategically important for China–Myanmar border trade.
According to Colonel Khun Okkar, there is no plan to retake Theinni by force. If China guarantees the MNDAA a degree of administrative autonomy similar to that of the Wa region, a fair settlement could be achieved.
“At the moment, there’s no intention to resolve the issue through fighting. The military also knows that if they fight for something that can be settled through negotiation, people will suffer and there will be loss of property. So, like in Lashio, they will probably settle it through negotiation. China will have to give some guarantees. If China guarantees the MNDAA a level of control similar to the Wa region, allowing them to manage their territory well, then the exchange could be fair, and Theinni could be handed over to the Myanmar Tatmadaw by the MNDAA. But the military will have to guarantee that. The idea is to allow them to govern their area properly. The Wa already have such an arrangement, and giving similar rights to another group wouldn’t be a big loss. However, both China and the Myanmar Tatmadaw want control over towns along the Union Highway because the closure of trade routes is not in their interest.”, he said.
MNDAA troops
Reports suggest that within the past two months, there have been five meetings between the MNDAA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw to discuss administrative control over Theinni.
Theinni is a key town for China–Myanmar border trade routes. Within Theinni District, the MNDAA’s taxation department operates six inspection gates along the border trade routes in Muse and Chinshwehaw, allowing 24-hour transport and trade of goods, according to an MNDAA statement issued in August.
Maj-Gen Khun Okkar also noted that Theinni serves as a defensive front for the MNDAA, and if the group receives political guarantees, it would not suffer losses from handing the town back.
“Theinni is like a frontline defense position for the Kokang MNDAA. If they hand it back but receive political guarantees, they won’t lose anything. What they want is full political guarantees and rights. It depends on how strong their control area will be. Based on that, I think they’ll reach a settlement over Theinni. It doesn’t look like either side will resume fighting. Since both sides have already agreed to a ceasefire, it will likely be resolved through negotiations.”, he said.
The MNDAA seized control of Theinni during the first phase of the 1027 Operation launched by the Northern Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA, and AA) in northern Shan State on October 27, 2023.
Theinni town
Later, during the second phase of the operation in August 2025, the MNDAA also captured Lashio, the headquarters of the Myanmar Tatmadaw’s Northeastern Command.
However, due to China’s mediation, the MNDAA handed Lashio back to the Myanmar Tatmadaw in April 2025.
Among the border trade points, Muse’s 105-Mile Trade Zone is the largest, and Chinshwehaw is the second largest. Both trade zones must be accessed through Theinni, making the town strategically essential.
Although the Myanmar Tatmadaw regained control of Lashio, analysts say that it must also retake Theinni to reopen the trade routes between northern Shan State and China.
Currently, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has retaken Kyaukme and Naungcho—towns along the China–Myanmar trade routes previously controlled by the TNLA—in July and October 2025.
Afterward, the Tatmadaw has continued offensive operations toward Hsipaw.
