CNI News
9 August 2025
While it would be compatible if Myanmar were to adopt a federal system, it could be problematic if it were to adopt a single form, U Htet Aung Kyaw, vice chairman of the National Democratic Force Party (NDF), told CNI News.
Since there are over a hundred ethnic groups in Myanmar, and each ethnic group is not the same, the federal system should not be a single form, he said.
“Countries with many ethnic groups like Myanmar need a federal system. Since the shape of Myanmar’s water, land, forests, and ethnic groups is not the same, a federal system that uses a single form may be a bit problematic. There will be one federal model for Kachin and another for Shan. Only if it is implemented in a way that is compatible with the land, forest, ethnic and cultural diversity will the federal system have a chance of success. Although most people and organizations are advocating for federalism, it is unclear whether all those advocating for it truly believe that federalism can succeed," he said.
The EAOs that have currently achieved confederal status beyond the federal system in Myanmar are the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army-Myla (NDAA).
if Myanmar used federalism, equal political rights must be granted, and federalism cannot be achieved without equal political rights, pointed out military and political observers.
While the peace forum was being held
Furthermore, they consider that if the federal status is to be given, it must be given to all the ethnic groups equally without giving the confederation status to any ethnic groups.
While some EAOs were talking about achieving federalism, their words and actions were different, said U Htet Aung Kyaw to CNI News. “Some EAOs only put forward the title of achieving federalism, but it seems that this is not their goal in reality, and there is a difference between what they say and what they actually do.
The main thing is that they want to govern in terms of territorial control and resource distribution, and these things can be considered as a weakness for democracy and federalism in the long term.
"In a federal system, if the central government and the state government can work together in a clear and trusting manner, this will be an advantage of the federal system. If any system cannot lay a solid foundation, the public will find it difficult to trust an administrative system whose words are inconsistent with practice, and their interest in politics will become weak," he said.
The armed groups that have signed the NCA and the government and the Tatmadaw have agreed to build a union based on democracy and federalism in Myanmar, and the political parties have accepted it.
However, due to the changing political landscape in Myanmar after February 1, 2021, some EAOs have expressed positions beyond federalism such as the establishment of a confederation or a new independent state.
While seeing Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and armed group leaders
The Arakan Army (AA) has said it will take a political status no lower than that of the “Wa” or achieve confederation status.
If necessary, it will stand as an independent state.
Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Vice Chairman Lt. Gen. Gun Maw has also stated that ethnic groups will have ideas that go beyond federalism by 2025.
Furthermore, Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) General Secretary Major General Tar Bone Kyaw said on August 18, 2022 that the Palaung people must be prepared to establish a country of their own if the situation arises.
