CNI News
8 May 2025
There are various opinions among military and political observers on the direction of the Arakan Army (AA)'s military ambitions in Myanmar.
the military objectives of the AA and PDF forces that have arrived outside Rakhine State may be directed towards defense equipment manufacturing factories located on the western bank of the Ayeyarwady River, Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), told CNI News.
“The Ayeyarwady offensive will be a show, but the real one is the western side of the Ayeyarwady River where the defense factories are located in the central plains. The Magway and Minbu offensives are more likely to become. The attack on Ayeyarwady Region will be a show, but the real offensive will be to take a foothold in Taung Goat and Ann and head towards the defense factories on the western side of the Ayeyarwady River, such as Setutthaya and Ngaphe. With the Shan-Mann operation failing, it seems they are aiming to launch a continuation of the Shan-Mann operation in Kachin State. In Kachin State, the KIA-PDF joint forces are attacking Bhamo, The resistance groups from Bhamo will meet at the Ayeyarwady River. That's why Bhamo can be the main operation. It seems like the Myanmar Tatmadaw is putting up a strong resistance in Bhamo,” he said.
A crossroads in Rakhine State
Clashes are taking place between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the AA-PDF joint forces on the Pathein-Monywa road in Ayeyarwady Region and the Yangon-Pyi road in Bago Region.
In addition, clashes are taking place between the AA and the Myanmar Tatmadaw on the Ann-Padan road, which connects the Rakhine Yoma and Magway Region. Similarly, fighting continues in Kyaukphyu Township, Rakhine State, where many Chinese projects are located, and in Chin State, PDFs are collaborating with Chin resistance groups to attack the Myanmar Tatmadaw.
Then, in the battles of Tigyaing, Kawlin, Indaw, and Bhamo in Sagaing Region, the AA is also fighting in collaboration with the KIA-PDF-ABSDF.
Colonel Khun Ukka, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Front (PNLO-NCA/S), which signed the NCA, told CNI News that the AA’s attacks on areas such as Ayeyarwady Region, Bago Region, Magway Region, and Chin State are merely a means of preventing counterattacks on areas in Rakhine State it has seized.
Two leaders of the AA
“I believe that the AA is attacking Bago, Ayeyarwady, and Magway Regions for the security of Rakhine, and to guard the opening for counter-offensives to protect Rakhine. If the AA attacks defense factories, will there be security for the territories in the back? Now it's attacking Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, so there's something to think about. However, if the AA gets international and allied support, it could have a bigger military ambition. If it doesn't get them, The AA's attack on the mainland is considered to be a way to build a fence for the security of Rakhine State. So, it's not easy for the Myanmar Tatmadaw to retake Rakhine State because it is preparing for the defense." he said.
The AA has stated that it wants a confederation at the lowest level and has the goal of establishing Rakhine Country at the highest level.
Currently, the AA has controlled the townships of Thandwe, Gwa, Ann, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Manaung, Pauktaw, Taung Goat, and Myebon in Rakhine State.
