CNI News
26 April 2025
After the process of handing over Lashio to the Stata Administration Council (SAC), China might ask the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to intervene in the remaining regions of northern Shan State on its behalf, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO-NCA/S), Col. Khun Okkar told CNI News.
He said that the Wa army should act as China's representative in matters where China does not want to get involved, and since China is behind the Wa, everyone needs to follow its orders.
" To put it simply, the Wa are acting as China's representative in matters that China does not want to do itself. Every organization needs to follow what the Wa asks because China is behind the Wa. However, under international law, China is expanding its influence by using the “Wa” army. Therefore, the “Wa” will not lose its normal position, but will intervene by providing guarantees for the remaining regions. There may be cases where China intervenes itself, and there may also be cases where the "Wa" intervenes. This is why groups like the KIA need to reconsider. Whether to continue fighting or to reconsider, as the “Wa” and China suggest, may be a bit of a question to consider. In northern Shan, fighting is possible in areas far from the Yunnan border, but fighting is unlikely in areas close to the Yunnan border. This is because border security and trade will be prioritized. China's BRI also extends through Burma to Kyaukphyu. China wants to regain control of these routes. Therefore, if the northern organizations continue to fight, they may face a crisis due to Chinese pressure." said Col. Khun Okkar.
While seeing former Chinese special envoy Mr. Sun Guo Xiang and the UWSA leader
Thanks to Chinese intervention, the Kokang National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) withdrew from Lashio, which it had occupied, on August 3, 2024. Then, on April 18, 21, and 22, Myanmar Tatmadaw convoys re-entered Lashio, preparing to restore administrative machinery.
It is believed that China forced the Kokang forces to withdraw from Lashio because it wanted to continue its border trade and other projects.
The success of the territorial control after the handover of Lashio will determine the future course of the revolution, China-Myanmar affairs analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told CNI News.
While seeing the UWSA and the MNDAA leaders
"We need to see how successful or unsuccessful the Lashio issue is. China is trying to open a trade route here, so if this is successful, it will benefit the people, the people's economy will improve, and the military council will stop acting badly like it always does, then the TNLA will have something to think about. How successful or unsuccessful Lashio will be will determine the revolutionary path ahead," she said.
The MNDAA's withdrawal from Lashio was not at the request of the SAC, but rather at the request of China since December 2024, said military and political observers.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has denied claims that the handover of Lashio was due to Chinese pressure, saying it was a friendly suggestion to restart the political reform process.
